How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained
Buy my book Humble Pi now!
UPDATE: Harvard Book Store have totally sold out.
My talk on 4 February 2021 at Harvard Book Store:
Here is the original accusation against Dream.
And here is Dream's reply.
"Matt flips a coin 100 times."
"Holy Craps! How a Gambling Grandma Broke the Record",8599,1901663,00.html
Number of casinos in the world in 2011: 3,547
Roulette records.
- At 09:08 I say “1 in 110 trillion” when I meant to say “1 in 110 billion”. The number on the screen is correct, it was just a verbal slip-up.
- At 25:27 I showed the 118 craps record as “1 in 1.2 × 10^9” when it should be “1 in 2.2 × 10^9”. The voiceover says the correct number.
- I slip and “more likely” instead of “less likely” at 33:47 (I think I may have even been going for “more unlikely”). But everything in the screen is correct.
- Let me know if you spot any more mistakes!
Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend [[REDACTED]] hours filming myself trying to achieve improbably things. If you support me, you can get access to all [[REDACTED]] hours of bonus footage from this episode.
As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing. And I believe they have no opinion on Dream.
Endless filming by Matt Parker
Editing by Alex Genn-Bash
Some graphics by Ben Sparks
Minecraft consultancy by Oliver Dunk
Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson
MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
US book:
UK book:

  • Stand-up Maths
    Stand-up Maths

    I’m not commenting on how many takes that took. But feel free to guess! (And if you must know: the complete footage of every attempt will be uploaded to Patreon. )

    • T Lo
      T Lo

      did you feel a little weird saying the same sentence over and over again?^^

    • Duck


    • shamanahaboolist

      Sneaky magnet behind the board?

    • Ellery Johnson
      Ellery Johnson

      I'm super in the idle Heroes and a lot of it is based on RNG and a lot of people in like the Facebook groups will talk about people cheating and hacks is stupid stuff like that because they're too stupid to realize that people are lucky and people are smart and can figure out how to use luck to their advantage and quantify that but whatever.

    • Charske Vlogs
      Charske Vlogs

      I wonder how long the bball thing took XD

  • Guy Raynes
    Guy Raynes

    not sure the maths is correct. the odds of different games should be added not multiplied as they are not connected. The odds are noting near your cal

    • crash

      What do you mean added? If I toss a coin twice, what are the odds that I get tails twice? Normally we'd do .5*.5, which is .25 so 25% chance of that scenario happening. According to your logic of addition, it'd be .5+.5 = 1. I think we both know that that isn't correct.

  • Joshua Bochner
    Joshua Bochner

    it's actually 50/50 you either get it or you don't

  • Stephen Schwartz
    Stephen Schwartz

    I'm not sure if anybody has done the math considering the fact that at times he had looting swords. Looting swords not only enable you to get rods more often, but you can sometimes get multiple from one blaze. That would seriously add to the total number of rods obtained over all the runs, even if he only had looting a few times, and I want to know if that would make the odds more reasonable. This may have been mentioned by someone else already but I'm wondering and I want to see the math.

  • Pog Moment
    Pog Moment


  • TheG0ldx

    But why no one’s talking about the fact that randomness doesn’t exist in computers ? Maybe in the intresec code of the game, there are biais that could make this event more likely

    • mambda

      Because different pseudo RNGs are involved. One gets updated thousands of times per second (trade related), the other gets created when an entity dies (drops). Since this isn't about std::rand() % 100 it's irrelevant.

  • Paul Riehm
    Paul Riehm

    I’d really like to see a comparison of dreams livestreams with other minecraft livestreams because (I don’t know if it is like that) I think everything that happens to people playing minecraft is very unlikely just because there could have happened so much else instead

    • mambda

      The mods of the leaderboard compared the drop/trade luck of dream with various other runners and his was significantly higher.

  • Tophat Owl
    Tophat Owl

    For the purpose of this discussion i wanna point out that we have witnessed xenon-124 decay (a substance with a half-life of 10^22 years) so never say never I suppose

    • marcel helder
      marcel helder

      @UC56GWAWsQIWwSgGEI9Yyc3QI would like a source for that, like morbidebbie explained, not comparable.

    • morbideddie

      They are not really comparable. The purpose of the human second century is to put the luck in context. Unless you know the number of possible attempts probability is just a number. In the case of xenon-124 the estimated half life is is very high at 1.8*10^22 and so yes, seeing the decay of a single specific particle is incredibly rare. However the experiment used 3.2 tonnes of xenon, of which 1/1000 was expected to be xenon-124. That means there was 3.2kg of the material and since xenon-124 is 124 g/mol that means we have 26 moles of the material in the experiment. In total there were approx 1.6*10^25 atoms so of course we managed to see one decay. The device detected 126 atoms decay in one year and that number was then used to update the expected half life of the substance. Matt talks about this when mentioning the lottery and how winners aren’t rare because there might be xmillion chance is winning but there are also xmilllion tickets sold per draw.

    • marcel helder
      marcel helder

      But how many xenon's were being monitored? I assume that takes it well with in the 3.1*10^19

  • Karl Churchill
    Karl Churchill

    6 Craps per hour? Prune diet.

  • Ushio\Tora

    26:46 "Buy of course we need to take in mind... Play Animal crossing - " Ah yes, of course! ... Stupid ads

  • Brendan Rizzo
    Brendan Rizzo

    Alternate title: REAL mathematician reacts to speedrun controversy.

  • Monkizaki

    I'm being serious when I say... The minecraft community is extremely smarter than what most people think.

  • M S
    M S

    but isn't the thing about statistics that something more unlikely as 3.1x10¹⁹ could happen? I mean of course it's probably not gonna happen, but it could.

    • Matías García Casas
      Matías García Casas

      There is a point in which we can just assume that it's never going to happen. It's technically possible that we are wrong, but the probability of that being the case is so incredibly and unimaginably small that we just have to be right.

    • morbideddie

      @Pedro Prada Carciofi I love the idea that the logical conclusion of a Dream Stans logic is that gravity might not exist and so far we’ve just been lucky and happened to fall downwards. I mean, technically there are things that are possible yet have a 0% probability of happening. So I guess they also believe that a random number generator with infinite time to operate could reasonably generate pi in its totality. The chances of that happening are 0% but it’s technically not impossible.

    • Athenri

      @Fluffy White Llama Nah, you only need to win, say, the grand prize of the powerball lottery three times in a row to get past there. No one will ever win that prize thrice in a row.

    • Pedro Prada Carciofi
      Pedro Prada Carciofi

      There has to be a point in wich you assume something is Impossible, otherwise everything becomes meaningless What if the laws of phisics actualy don't exist and we have just been getting lucky? That's possible The thing is, it's so improblable that we can just ignore it. Same thing with Dream no cheating

    • Fluffy White Llama
      Fluffy White Llama

      @M S True, but the number is completely infeasible. Winning the lottery thousands of times is still super far off from Dream's 1 in 20 sextillion odds. A better example might be the possibility of me spontaneously growing wings from a DNA mutation. Technically possible but not ever happening

  • Exayevie

    Dream is absurdly fake. He wouldn’t have to be a fraction as lucky for me to think he was cheating

  • Martin Fagbile
    Martin Fagbile

    I wish found this before my test on hypothesis testing

  • Viktorious

    ... but there is a chance right?

    • morbideddie

      It’s possible, but that can be said about a million other completely infeasible things. It’s technically possible for me to mash my hand on a keyboard and write an award winning novel, but if I showed you a novel would you believe that’s how I wrote it?

  • Adrian Somogyi
    Adrian Somogyi

    I was feeling down after I had to get up at 4am and clean floors for 6 hours but this really cheered me up!

  • Oskar Jankowski
    Oskar Jankowski

    I thought I was gonna have to pause the video, go away, and complete a major in mathematics.

  • Sean Ryan
    Sean Ryan

    this guy should play the lotto

  • Tim Theiß
    Tim Theiß

    Can somebody recommend a source if I want to dive a bit deeper into the maths behind the stuff in this video, regarding having n coin flips, what is the probability to get k times the same outcome in a row at some point?

    • Athenri

      I think the most intuitive way of doing it is with a markov chain. You can make those pretty easily as spreadsheets. A markov chain is, fundamentally, a little state machine with the property that it only cares about where it is *now* but not about anything else. So if you want to know, say, the probability of getting a streak of 2 heads in four coin tosses, you can do it like this. You know that if you currently have 0 heads in a row, the probability that you have 1 head next time is 1/2, and 1/2 chance that you stay at 0 heads. If you currently have 1 head, the probability that you have 2 heads next is 1/2, the probability that you have 0 heads is 1/2. And if you have 2 heads, then you just stop thinking about that streak because it's clearly already done. And then you can tell a spreadsheet to do that for you.

  • Błażej Przybyszewski
    Błażej Przybyszewski

    Side note: So much better with the beard. Where did it go again?

  • Jarl P
    Jarl P

    Well this is just perfect.. am both subed to a few speed run channals and Numberfile, so YT really got this recommendation right🙂

  • Nick

    Dude holy crap. Like, I look at “getting 42/262 when 12/262 is the drop rate” and think “eh that’s lucky but doesn’t seem insane” until you actually do the math on it. That’s bonkers.

    • Athenri

      Yeah. The intuition that's important to have is that doubling the amount of trials obviously doubles the mean, but it doesn't double the standard deviation (how much we expect something to vary) It only multiplies that by the *square root* of two. So when if you have *four* times the amount of trials, you only get twice the deviation, even though the mean is four times as big. So suddenly this relatively small deviation (in absolute terms) becomes a completely unsurmountable mountain.

  • hayden young
    hayden young

    No such thing as being too lucky on the poker machines

  • RollingBanana

    17:16 poor book :( at least they landed on the shelf

  • Alan Agnew
    Alan Agnew

    Perhaps God made it happen that he got that speed run done legally, yet Dream's attitude in defending himself is what's being addressed.

    • Fluffy White Llama
      Fluffy White Llama

      @JOSEPH WODARCZYK and specifically into Dream


      @XraynPR exclusively java though.

    • XraynPR

      God is into Minecraft?

  • Elad Oz-cohen
    Elad Oz-cohen

    This is a masterpiece. My goodness this is math-fiesta!

  • Peddybear

    There is just one thing bugging me about this theory. What if people speedran minecraft for another thousand years and Dream's speedrun was still the only one who had such incredible luck. Then it wouldn't be as less likely anymore, would it?

    • morbideddie

      The individual event would be just as unlikely but technically yes, the probability of that luck having occurred in a thousand years would be higher. It still doesn’t really help dreams case though as the maths shown in the video demonstrate that even if we expand beyond minecraft it would take millions of years for this luck to occur so a thousand years would barely put a dent in that.

  • LimHX -
    LimHX -

    This is all irrelevant, you see, he just had a really good gaming chair

  • ChocolateDoughnuts

    It’s clearly scripted

  • Maximiliano Alvisto De León
    Maximiliano Alvisto De León

    I am here by random chance, but I like both Minecraft and mathematics, so I subscribed.

    • 'nSane

      If you like minecraft and mathematics the yt algorithm likely knows that too so you aren't here by random chance.

  • ThatsMyCookie

    Never seen so much work put into proving somebody did or didn’t get 4th place

  • Slayer156 0
    Slayer156 0

    One thing that is flawed about the math is that, blazes can drop more than one rod per death and piglins usually give you 6ish enderpearls

    • yiy

      @Fluffy White Llama and even if we added the amount of ender pearls per trade it would probably just make dream's speedrun even more unlikely than it already is

    • Fluffy White Llama
      Fluffy White Llama

      Blazes only drop more than one rod if you have the looting enchantment, which Dream didn't. For the ender pearls, the math is adding the amount of pearl barters, not the amount of pearls the barters give you.

  • Edge Ninja
    Edge Ninja

    This channel feels like watching those old school 90's educational shows.

  • Jacob

    Okay but how did you land that dart shot at the begging?

    • marcel helder
      marcel helder

      Trail and error

  • u/mr_alt_mail

    Remember, to see where are dream stans scroll by new like you do on Reddit

  • Hi

    I got 32 tails in a row once with a normal penny. What's the probably of that?

    • marcel helder
      marcel helder

      @crash the odds are double that because it doesn't matter if it's all tails or all heads. That's to say the odds off specifically all heads is that but assuming he just starting flipping coins all tails would have seem equally amazing.

    • Hi

      @crash woah, i still always find it amazing to just shuffle a deck of cards and know that is could be a deck never shuffled resulting in that order before or even again in the future

    • crash

      .5^32=0.00000000023283... Unlikely but also not entirely random either as flipping a coin does have a bit of a human element to it.

  • Austin Mccollum
    Austin Mccollum you’re sayin there’s a chance!

    • thatotakubytheside

      there is, but the chances are so astronomically low that it's considered impossible.

  • Mees van Zeeland
    Mees van Zeeland

    I don’t think that is how chance works, if there is a chance it happens you can’t say that it is never gonna happen

    • Matías García Casas
      Matías García Casas

      The guy is literally a mathematician, he knows what he's talking about.


      There's also a chance that every atom in me will quantum tunnel so I basically teleport ontop of mount everest so that's possible too.

    • Orang yang Hidup
      Orang yang Hidup

      @XraynPR he didn't

    • XraynPR

      that's exactly what the video is about, did you watch it?

  • ShowToddSomeLove

    What if he did do it though

  • Davyn Sager
    Davyn Sager

    23:30 how many takes did it take to get both of those in the same shot?

  • Graham Masters
    Graham Masters

    Matt, bought your book in the UK for our flight back to Australia next week (assuming it's not delayed again). Thanks for making math fun :) I actually bought it as a friend recommended it so you've got word of mouth going there!

  • Thomas Schmidt
    Thomas Schmidt

    The blaze rods have a much higher drop chance if he had an enchanted sword in the off hand. Maybe he found one once and used it to farm a lot of blaze rods, destroying the whole statistics? I don't know the propability of this theory either.

    • Fluffy White Llama
      Fluffy White Llama

      @Thomas Schmidt It's all good. The data came from a total of 24 hours of speedrunning

    • Thomas Schmidt
      Thomas Schmidt

      @Fluffy White Llama I didn't know all data was from speedruns.

    • Fluffy White Llama
      Fluffy White Llama

      He never had that enchantment. I would be impressed if someone even managed to get looting during a speedrun.

    • RichConnerGMN

      he didn't

  • Mike kinard
    Mike kinard

    Hasn't Illumina beat Dreams records? So why does any of this matter I could see if he was number 1 in the world cheating people for fame and money but right now who cares if you enjoy his content

    • Baguette Gott
      Baguette Gott

      I mean, I care because it's such a fun controversy. All the wonderful maths content was that made on youtube because of it... I love it. I can't even be mad at dream for cheating, like you said, cheating to get 4th place in minecraft speedrunning is a comparatively victimless crime and I wouldn't advocate for like, canceling the guy over it. (Not that his fans would listen to me if I DID advocate for that lol)

    • 'nSane

      I care because i trusted dream but now i don't. Also the leaderboards exist for keeping track of everyones times not just the WR.

    • morbideddie

      Dream never held the 1.16 wr, he got 4th, currently his time would be ranked around 160th if it was still on the boards. Cheating is still cheating, by taking 4th place he denied someone the position that actually worked for it. Does cheating in athletics only matter if you win the Olympics?

    • DexPlays

      Most speedrunners have common luck, since most of the speedrunners are very skilled in the game and speedrun the game very fast.

    • Syntax

      he fooled millions of his fans.

  • VoidSurf

    Brilliant video. Everything about it is pure quality.

  • Matthew G
    Matthew G

    the subtle look of satisfaction in your face when that went in at 10:10 😂

  • NikolaBlahBlahh

    10:37 sees Dani_ *there's dad!*

  • Raywez

    Well...I found 2 dollars today I feel lucky enough for a week!

  • Cosmic Coffee
    Cosmic Coffee

    Crazy, I find it interesting that one of the least likely statistical miracles we've all experienced that I can think of off the top of my head which is just the fact any of us specifically happening to be born is more likely than this Dream guy having legitimately accomplished this supposed feat. For you math nerds; probability of your birth: 1 in 4 x 10^14 (that's 1 in 400 trillion with a 'T') The probability of Dream not cheating has ~8 more zeros tacked onto the end...fascinating, but I guess it only has to happen once.

    • crash

      To be fair, this is also kind of addressed in the video. There's a difference between throwing a dart out of a plane and having it land on a bullseye and throwing one out of the plane and painting a target around it.

  • Steven Vaughn
    Steven Vaughn

    Dreams run was so unlikely that the word improbable is misleading.

    • Aetherius

      I feel a profile connection to you

  • Mike Major
    Mike Major

    Did you account for the fact that he stops killing blaze/trading for pearls once he has the necessary amount of that item? For example, if your goal is to roll a 7, 5 times, with two dice. You will always roll a seven on the final roll because you don't keep rolling after. Same with killing blaze and trading for pearls. Also there are enchanted items in MineCraft the greatly increase the drop percentages on blaze rods. I'm not sure if he had acquired any during the playthroughs but that could make a difference too. Idk if this would make enough of a difference to change anything but it could be worth looking into.

    • F for Respect
      F for Respect

      that moment when you say Minecraft as MineCraft

    • Julian W
      Julian W

      Stopping rule only applies on the very last trade, if ever. The difference it could make is negligible (although I’m pretty sure they accounted for it anyway).

    • Fluffy White Llama
      Fluffy White Llama

      Everything here was accounted for. Dream never had the looting enchantment on his weapons so we don't have to worry about that, and the stopping rule doesn't apply to Dream's odds. Others have explained it but to put it simply, Dream never stops bartering/killing blazes permanently. After one stream, he moves onto the next one where he does more barters and blaze kills.

  • Spriteless Myself
    Spriteless Myself

    Oh gosh I had just learned how to use z-tables!


    sounds like you watch summoning salt videos

  • DarkSkay

    A philosophical question: does randomness even exist? Asked differently: are there (or can there even be) sources of randomness? There are sources of unpredictability (like rolling dice), but whether our universe is deterministic or non-deterministic is unknown - whether it contains (or is linked to inside or outside) sources of randomness. Let's roll two dice, your eyes will see the result and let's assume your result R0 is governed by randomness. But to determine the outcomd of your dice, there must be "something/someone", unseen in the background, that "rolled his own dice" (R1), to determine the result of your dice in the first place! But to get randomness into R1, there must be a R2, which in turn needs a R3 to feed its randomness, then a R4 etc. The whole concept of "source of randomness" becomes an infinite loop! So from this point of view only two scenarios appear on the surface: A) there is a "God of Randomness" or B) randomness does not exist, our universe is 100% deterministic. Gods throwing their "magical dice" (rock bottom randomness; results even unknown to them!) to determine outcomes, used where they don't want to decide the outcome themselves, sounds quite crazy. Although, on closer inspection the the concept of (source of) randomness is crazy in itself! Logic, mathematics or physics can't find, expose, create, generate or explain (sources of) randomness. Maths and computer programs can only create sequences of pseudo-random numbers. Then (as far as we know or believe) classical or quantum physics can only create unpredictability. Randomness is a great mystery...

  • Hunter Mitchell
    Hunter Mitchell

    How funny. I watch this video all the way through, go back to the ISnets homepage, then check my clock. It's 3:14. I knew I had to come back to write this

  • Spiffy _
    Spiffy _

    Guys, guys, guys. I know I'm late but the reason Dream was so good was because of the RGB in his pc. It's that simple!

    • moneyfu

      They haven’t factored in his good gaming chair

  • Occasionalnerd

    Th ten billion human second century concept is amazing, and I'm saddened there's not another video on this but should it be in a future video I will be delighted. An excellent way of showing just how unlikely something is.

  • Iron Warrior
    Iron Warrior

    That one guy defending dream:"but its possible to occure therefore dream is innocent!"

    • VoidSurf

      That's where the concept of a reasonable doubt comes in. Are the odds of 10B humans, doing the same thing once per second non-stop and still having the desired event occur only once every 100,000 years on average, reasonable? Even if it is theoretically possible, it's so astronomically unlikely as to render any debate moot. We can never be sure, but our confidence is as close to certainty as you can ever hope to get in practice. Unless this was a supervised competition, fully audited, everything airtight - such a result should be thrown away immediately. Even in the most ideal of conditions, it would merit an extensive investigation.

  • nate williamson
    nate williamson

    Wonder how many times he filmed the darts and basketball parts and had to redo it lol

    • Plusxz

      Dude perfect: PATHETIC

  • james pond
    james pond

    How lucky is too lucky?? How many tries did that book throw take??

  • Anvilshock

    Minecraft: We're big in the news! EVE Online, KSP: First time?

    • Eduard van Sligtenhorst
      Eduard van Sligtenhorst

      Am i missing something ? I play ksp and used eve for a while

  • Leon Filmalter
    Leon Filmalter

    26:09 dude.... That's a lot of craps

  • Steven Stokes
    Steven Stokes

    Did anyone else start again from 1:08 to see if he started with a beard

  • levi c
    levi c

    i like how there was 5050 runs for flipping a coin 100 times

  • Dreamhunter

    TLDR; Dream hacked, get over it kid

  • LuxTenebrae

    This is probably the best delivered explanation of this whole situation. It’s also explained very simply which is really nice

  • Anakin Ligman
    Anakin Ligman

    My question is, aren't the other streams available? Couldn't they look at the stats that occurred over all 11 streams?

    • Athenri

      @Elliott Hynes Nah, it makes the odds look better. It takes it from an astoundingly nonsensical one to a plausible one. But it only does this by combining runs where Dream actually got legitimately RNGfucked with these later runs where he gets absurdly "lucky", and it's silly because the runs simply don't look like they would have come from the same distribution at all.

    • Elliott Hynes
      Elliott Hynes

      They have! Check out antvenoms video, I think it makes the odds look worse.

    • Athenri

      Doing that is just going to obfuscate the relevant numbers. There's really no reason to want to do that. For an analogy, imagine that you're looking at me flipping a coin. I get 30 flips that are all just about normal. Then suddenly after I leave and come back, I get 30 heads in a row. If you're wondering whether I changed my coin, you wouldn't add in results that I got with something we're pretty sure is a real coin.

  • LS Aria
    LS Aria

    Only thing I can think of that might have some kind of impact is if he found a Looting sword which could massively affect the Blaze Rod drops, but even then the bartering is pretty damning...

  • Дмитрий Бондаренко
    Дмитрий Бондаренко

    i hate dream

    • Baguette Gott
      Baguette Gott

      @F for Respect oh I don't. I mean, he's kind of... unsympathetic, in my opinion. But I enjoy observing his drama and his fanbase from a distance immensly :D

    • u/mr_alt_mail

      Me 2

    • F for Respect
      F for Respect

      Pretty sure most peole here do

  • Tech Guy
    Tech Guy

    He is too lucky. Let him be lucky. Kids follow the trend and such things. Kids would never follow real games where it require skills *cough * cough CSGO

    • Tech Guy
      Tech Guy

      @Damian Flett Go back and collect blocks.

    • Damian Flett
      Damian Flett

      Ok i feel like I’m getting trolled at this point. This reads like the ninja copypasta.

    • Tech Guy
      Tech Guy

      @Damian Flett Not at all lmfao, the point is to kill the dragon and that's all LMFAO Who cares about killing a dragon in less than 20 mins? A dragon? LMFAO

    • Tech Guy
      Tech Guy

      @Damian Flett Imagine killing a dragon..sure sounds very hard😂😂😂😂🙄🙄 and calling it hard...

    • Damian Flett
      Damian Flett

      @Tech Guy just pick up the blocks and place them, it can’t be that hard can it?

  • o2 fanny high ligth
    o2 fanny high ligth

    How long did it take to make that dart shot???

  • Super 100
    Super 100


  • Matías Pascual
    Matías Pascual

    Great video, subscribed!

  • MrFeanaro9

    As a maths tutor with lots of Minecraft playing students, I just want to say a very heartfelt thank you for this video!

  • Gabriel Saunero
    Gabriel Saunero

    I freaking loved your video. Totally agree, mixing Minecraft with Mathematics education for a lovely purpose such as discovering CHEATING :D A PERFECT 10.

  • SandalphonCPU • 210 years ago
    SandalphonCPU • 210 years ago

    Obviously it’s because he’s the main character. But of course, he traded his home for it.

  • Kate vlroux
    Kate vlroux

    Hello sir, if I wish to buy the book, where can I buy the extended version? Does Harvard Book Store still sell the original and or the ext? I'd like to know, thank you in advance.

  • Guard #3
    Guard #3

    I literally just learned how to put numbers in and take numbers out of scientific notation in algebra class why am I here :’)

  • hatty 90
    hatty 90

    And he only got what would have been 4th place, what is 1st place odds!?!?!?!

    • Null Pointer
      Null Pointer

      @Shaltinanwenor that's correct, he was on world record pace until he was in the portal room

    • Shaltinanwenor

      If memory serves, he was lacking one pearl when he went to the portal so he had to get another one. If he hadn't miscounted the pearls (or had a portal with one extra pearl in the portal) he was on pace for world first.

    • morbideddie

      As mentioned in the video this is an analysis of the full 6 streams. The law of large numbers states that as more trials are completed the odds will then to converge on the true value. Therefore over the 6 streams we should be seeing drop rates in line with the theoretical value. To give you an example, say you are in a dice rolling competition with 100 other people and your goal is to roll three dice and get all sixes in as fewer rolls as possible. Normally the odds of getting three sixes is 0.5% but you modify the dice to give you a 6 40% of the time meaning your odds of getting the three sixes is 6.4% per trial. You have 10x better odds of winning the contest than anyone else but you still will likely lose because there are 100 other people playing. In this case Dream modified the dice to favour him but that doesn’t mean that a few of the thousand other people he is competing with won’t get individual runs that are luckier.

    • prowo

      This wasn't the analysis of his odds in 1 run - it was an analysis of his odds over a week of streaming and hundreds of runs. His average luck over that long period of time was too high. You can get really lucky for just a small instant and it's not nearly as significant - it's sample size. Additionally, Dream is not the best speedrunner in the game and people can outperform him based on skill/strategy, no need to attribute the success of those on the leaderboard above him completely to luck.

  • Vasileios Lempesis
    Vasileios Lempesis

    But what if we had an enormous amount of bots playing minecraft... how many bot hours would it take to make these results likely... and is that even possible with the currently available processing power?

    • crash

      @Vasileios Lempesis No, just because a computer has done any amount of simulations, even if he did 10^25^25 amoutn of simulations, it still wouldn't change how likely it is that Dream did it. The only way to change it is if an actual run would be do-able in less time and thus be done more. Just because a simulation can simulate something within a second what a speedrunner has to do within 20 minutes or so doesn't change anything. It should not be taken into account. But if the run had been done after 10^22 times and there are runs that are almost equally as likely in there, then it becomes probable that a result like that has happened. Just like grinding in Doom or Goldeneye. If a newcomer to the speedrunning community gets a world record with incredible RNG then there are gonna be some eyebrows raised. Even though many other people have done those runs and gotten equivalent RNG it is still very unlikely for this one person to get this RNG on his first submitted run.

    • Athenri

      @Vasileios Lempesis Right, obviously we don't have to *actually* run runs, we can simulate them instead, and then we can probably get a lot more done. The question is how much fidelity to actual minecraft play we lose by doing so. Like in reality what we want to do is to try to get 42 ender pearl trades and 211 blaze rod drops and see how often we need less than 262 barters and 305 blaze kills - skipping out on the entire surrounding framework of Minecraft.

    • Vasileios Lempesis
      Vasileios Lempesis

      @Athenri that's an excellent answer. However we would not have to run the simulation in real time, it would be merely a question of processing power for the simulations to be run in just a few seconds. With enough processing power you could start a livestream, run all the simulations the first second of the stream and just playback the one that fits your purpose. What is missing from the equation of course is how much processing power it would take to do that. But I agree we would probably end up with a huge amount of time required. Some sources are claiming a global computing power of 2 x 10^20-1.5x10^21 FLOPS in 2015 others project that we will be in the 10^21 range in 2030...

    • Vasileios Lempesis
      Vasileios Lempesis

      @crash an outcome with odds in the 10^22 range would be almost inevitable after 10^25 attempts. For the sake of discussion, one could claim that if an AI on a supercomputer is able to run that many simulations within a reasonable amount of time, then in theory, that should be also accounted for in the "10 billion human second century" argument. If that many simulations were occuring somewhere then one could claim that the run was merely a chance event (if we can agree that human runs and simulations are to be counted together). I surely don't mean that you would have to believe them, but that it would have been a mathematically valid claim.

    • Athenri

      ​@Vasileios Lempesis You can do about 4 runs in an hour, so to match Dream's final run, around one in 8000, you'd need around 2000 bot hours. Totally not impossible. To match Dream's overall runs, we'll need 20 sextillion sets of...let's just say 32 runs. At 15 minutes per run, each set takes 8 hours. So we're, in the end, going to need around 160 sextillion bot hours before we expect a set to look as good as Dream's did. That's 1.6*10^23 bot hours. Let's assume we can run a billion bots concurrently. So we're getting 10^9 bot hours each hour. So we're getting 2.4*10^10 bot hours each day. We're doing it every day, around the clock, so in a year we get 8.76*10^12 bot hours out... So at one billion bots, we're going to need them to run for about 20 billion years before one of the sets is expected to be as good as Dream's. So if you had a billion bots running Minecraft non-stop trying to mimic Dream's runs for the entire existence of the universe to date, we still wouldn't get there. We'd be in the ballpark though!

  • alejandro.javier

    Don't you love probabilities 😘

  • S L
    S L

    the human second century is slightly misleading in this case because a minecraft speedrun lasts over 10 minutes not 1 second

    • F for Respect
      F for Respect

      The fact that he counts every second as a run makes his chances seem even more unlikely

    • Null Pointer
      Null Pointer

      that's the point, and it isn't even just a single run but his sequence of runs over multiple streams. What he's doing is describing an upper bound to show how unlikely that sequence of runs actually was.

    • prowo

      It's not misleading, you just fail to understand what he means. The human second century is just to give the odds a scale. It's odd to think about, but just imagine that people do a set of 6 minecraft streams just like he did and try to get his odds, but shrunken down into one second, and they do that every second for a century. It's weird that that much stuff is supposed to fit into a second, but seconds in a century are just meant to show how much it happens.

  • SpyTUC

    Do you have a methlab?

  • On yo feet maggot
    On yo feet maggot

    This guy looks like Dorian Yates if he decided to become a mathematician instead of a bodybuilder

  • Christian Sitzman
    Christian Sitzman

    17:17 ... Nice

  • Götarp

    We want bloopers

  • Christo du Plessis
    Christo du Plessis

    Patricia breaking the world record in roulette and craps directly after each other really sunk any chance Dream had to convince the world. Btw, what is minecraft?

  • king frozen
    king frozen

    The beard is 10/10

    • Qwe Fhj
      Qwe Fhj


    • Plusxz



    Hello. Nice video. But nowdays, there are more speedruns like that and Dream is not the fastest anymore. How lucky they must be.

    • ThatKyle

      the strats in minecraft speedrunning has changed since dream's cheating controversy. it is now even more skill-based than luck. instead of getting lucky with pearls, you just need to find a bastion which is easy with strats like eray

    • prowo

      They have faster times because they are better and use more optimized strategies. Dream is not the best minecraft speedrunner in the slightest. You do not need to be luckier than him to beat him. Anyways, people who use modern strategies trade so much gold with bastions that they don't actually need to get lucky to complete runs quickly.

    • morbideddie

      Dreams luck in his submitted run are not suspicious, it’s suspicious that over the 6 streams he got consistently high rates which is incredibly unlikely. It’s like comparing getting 7/10 heads and comparing it to 70/100 heads. Same rate, vastly different probabilities. Also new runs use loads of new meta with ocean strays, bastions to minimise luck required in trading, quadrants in the nether etc. It’s basically a new run since Dream was doing it.

    • Athenri

      Not nearly as lucky, honestly.

  • Silvertarian

    Bell curves don't lie.

  • me me
    me me

    10:31 Dani 10th very cool.

  • mustafa

    Guys, he just had a good gaming chair

  • The Swiss Guy
    The Swiss Guy

    Why do people always just unanimously decide that they like someone... who then turn out that they’re in some massive drama.

    • Plusxz

      I was going to put a neutrality phrase and then saw ur pfp

  • Gauss Niwre
    Gauss Niwre

    Astrophysicist getting the statistics wrong... no surprise here... astronomical ladder, Betelgeuse distance "correction", etc..

    • Llamma Pajama
      Llamma Pajama

      The Astrophysicist doesn't exist. This is legitimately highschool level math.

  • The Uncle
    The Uncle

    Glad that Scott Stapp became an educational youtuber. Didn't know he was British.

  • Harshita Joshi
    Harshita Joshi

    This is my first time here. I've never enjoyed math so much.😀

  • Gus Ziliotto
    Gus Ziliotto

    I love how seriously you learned the ins and outs of the minecraft speedrun. Shows a lot of respect. ♡(◡‿◡✿)

  • C I R C U S
    C I R C U S

    I don't want to know how many attempts he needed for the intro.

  • Denis M
    Denis M

    Curious why the puzzle on his book shelf during the bowling pins in background was not turned to full completion (maybe just me)

  • Tomasz Rasolomampionona
    Tomasz Rasolomampionona

    Timestamps for all lucky shots: 0:12 Dart 1 6:39 Basket 1.1 6:45 Basket 1.2 9:42 Basket 2.1 9:47 Basket 2.2 9:53 Basket 2.3 10:10 Basket 2.4 17:16 Book 23:30 Dice 31:51 Pins 36:20 Dart 2

    • Joël Hoeve
      Joël Hoeve

      36:20 Dart

    • Erick Lerdo de Tejada
      Erick Lerdo de Tejada

      This needs to get to the top!

    • Raul F. Duarte
      Raul F. Duarte

      23:30 dice

    • VoidSurf

      @Hazel the book one is just crazy.

    • Hazel

      Thanks, also u forgot the book one at 17:16